October 2026 AI 30 Update
The Buildout Broadens Beyond the Hyperscalers, and Space Joins the AI Stack
Dan Ives and the Yorkville Ives research team have added SpaceX and Dell Technologies to the IVES AI 30 while removing Oracle and Pegasystems. The October 8, 2026 update reflects two themes the team sees driving the buildout from here. AI infrastructure spending is broadening beyond the hyperscalers into enterprises, sovereigns, governments, and neoclouds, and space has become an AI infrastructure layer in its own right.
The broader thesis is unchanged. Yorkville Ives describes the AI Revolution as being in the 3rd inning of a 9-inning game, with 2026 the inflection point year. Second quarter earnings validated the bullish view again, with committed 2026 AI capital expenditures (capex) across the five largest cloud platforms now running at roughly $850 billion, up from the $725 billion cited in May, and cloud backlogs at new records as enterprise and frontier-lab demand runs ahead of capacity. Chip demand still far outstrips supply, with power and permitting now the gating factors on new capacity. The market has grown more selective, separating companies that convert AI demand into capacity, revenue, and cash flow from those where monetization is still a promise. The team expects that dispersion to widen.
IVES AI 30 Updates
Additions to the IVES AI 30
- SpaceX (SPCX): Added to the hyperscaler group as the first platform pairing more than a gigawatt of AI compute with its own global low-earth-orbit network and launch capability. Second quarter AI revenue grew 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, and the segment turned EBITDA, a measure of a business’s raw profit engine, positive, backed by $14.1 billion of contracted cloud sales and 1.4 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity, while consolidated revenue grew 92%. No other name on the list combines launch, connectivity, and compute on one balance sheet.
- Dell Technologies (DELL): Added to the semiconductor and hardware group as the systems and integration layer that turns GPU and memory output into deployed capacity. Dell carries a $95 billion AI server backlog, roughly $132 billion of AI orders over the past twelve months, and a fiscal 2027 AI server revenue outlook of $74 billion, about three times the prior year.
Removals from the IVES AI 30
- Oracle (ORCL): Removed as the execution and financing demands of its buildout now exceed what the company has shown it can manage. The force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, the 2.45-gigawatt New Mexico campus that is the largest single Stargate site, together with $90 to $95 billion of fiscal 2027 capex against negative free cash flow and a BBB- credit rating, leaves conversion of its $664 billion backlog dependent on permits, pipelines, and capital markets outside its control.
- Pegasystems (PEGA): Removed as Blueprint AI, the basis for its inclusion, has yet to show up in annual contract value (ACV) growth, the metric the company itself calls its best indicator of execution. Total ACV growth has slowed from 17% to 7%, and management now guides 2026 ACV growth near 10% versus 15% earlier in the year.
Backlogs Are the Clearest Tell on the Cycle
Hyperscaler spending showed up in June-quarter results. Azure accelerated to 43% growth, AWS to 37%, and Google Cloud to 82%, the fastest any of the three has posted in years, while commercial backlogs reached records at Microsoft ($678 billion), Google Cloud ($514 billion), and AWS ($496 billion). Contracted demand exceeds built capacity, so all three still call themselves supply constrained and new capacity is monetized the quarter it comes online. The next two years come down to how fast those backlogs convert into revenue and at what margin.
Software Splits Into Winners and Losers
Software bottomed in early April on the SaaSpocalypse narrative, and the cap-weighted software index has since risen roughly 40% from its low. Second quarter prints showed models commoditizing while the enterprise context those models need did not. The data layer has become the bottleneck for production AI, pricing is moving from per-seat to seat-plus-consumption, and the market is paying for AI monetization it can see in reported metrics while penalizing names where the AI story has not reached the growth line. Pegasystems came off the list on that basis.
Constraints Move to Memory, Packaging, and Power
Nvidia offered a full-year-forward outlook for the first time, with fiscal 2028 revenue expected to grow roughly 70% on a supply-constrained basis, and the Vera Rubin platform reached full production about a quarter ahead of schedule. AMD is winning multi-gigawatt commitments from frontier labs, and Broadcom's custom accelerators are taking a growing share of inference budgets, but the team's read is that the pie is expanding faster than share is shifting. The binding constraints have moved from GPU supply alone to high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, and power.
Conclusion
The October update extends the list toward where the buildout is heading rather than changing the thesis behind it. Spending is broadening beyond the hyperscalers, space has become an infrastructure layer, and the market has started paying only for AI monetization it can see. The additions bring in the integration layer and the newest front in the AI Revolution, and the removals hold the list to the standard of AI visibly driving growth today.
Important Information
This content draws from the October 2026 AI Revolution report, “Adding DELL and SPCX to the AI 30 Winner List; Removing ORCL and PEGA,” by Dan Ives and the Yorkville Ives research team. Excerpts are used under fair use for educational and informational purposes. All rights reserved to Yorkville Ives & Co., LLC.
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